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We can’t view the news these days without finding fuel for despair. Nonetheless, I’d like to draw on my nearly forty years of advising on foreign aid for democracy, the rule of law and human rights around the world to offer ten positive points about American democracy in these troubled times.
These thoughts are not predictions. I see all sorts of reasons to see a dark future. But I don’t see how giving up does us any good.
1. We’re comparatively fortunate. Yes, really. As I sketch below, foreign societies burdened by poverty, poor education, repression and histories far worse than ours have overcome more daunting circumstances to launch, protect or restore democracy. If they can overcome, so can we.
2. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. What? I’m already interrupting this positive essay with dire predictions about the near future? Yes, because the worst is probably yet to come with the FBI, the Justice Department and other institutions in coming months. But knowing what lies ahead can help fortify us for moving forward.
3. Patience. Losing patience can mean giving up, which is exactly what Trump wants. In fact, “learned helplessness” – ordinary citizens being powerless partly because they feel powerless – is something that corrupt elites profit from in developing countries across the globe. From Poland to South Africa to South Korea to Brazil to Chile, people showed great patience while fighting for democracy. They ultimately prevailed because they kept the flame burning despite the darkness.
4. Strongmen are strong until they’re not. Authoritarian regimes can tumble quickly in the face of unexpected events, internal divisions, overconfidence, overreaching, subtle decay or other factors. The Soviet Union fell apart unexpectedly. A reformist political rival’s assassination inflamed the opposition that toppled the Philippines’ Marcos kleptocracy. Syria’s decades-old Assad autocracy fell to an insurgency in a few days. I’m not saying that any such fate will or should befall Trump. But the foundations of his dominance could well crumble, whether quickly or gradually.
5. Vipers turn on each other. One step that hastened Marcos’s collapse was his diabolical defense minister betraying him. The Trump camp’s early divisions are already apparent. MAGA provocateur Steve Bannon is slashing at Elon Musk and other Silicon Valley “broligarchs.” And does anyone think that two supremely narcissistic egos like Trump and Musk will peacefully coexist for four years?
6. Supporters can turn on vipers. Corruption, scandals and especially economic downturns have undercut authoritarians in a number of nations. Trump’s moves may well impose inflation, major job losses or government benefits cuts on his own supporters. Many won’t hold him accountable; but if some do, it could subvert his sway.
7. Sudden developments can spark powerful protests. Though the pro-democracy Arab Spring eventually gave way to an autocratic Arab Winter, it was sparked by a single Tunisian street vendor setting himself ablaze over corruption. Indonesia’s Suharto fell in the wake of a global financial crisis. Bangladesh’s longstanding autocratic regime collapsed just last year, due to public revulsion over violent police crackdowns that killed hundreds of student protestors.
8. Small steps pave the way for big progress. In leading a review of Ford Foundation law-related programs, I had the privilege of researching and writing the chapter on nongovernmental legal services grantees’ work in apartheid South Africa. One lesson was that even as the courts there largely upheld the racist legal framework, those human rights groups chipped away at that framework in ways that – combined with political activism, economic boycotts and external pressure – led the government to eventually give way. Myriad differences distinguish South Africa then from America now. The point is that even relatively small steps can help fuel major progress.
9. Diverse civil society strategies are emerging here. Pro-democracy civil society strategies have succeeded across the globe, such as in Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution” that toppled a corrupt, authoritarian-leaning administration. Here at home, we’ve licked our wounds long enough; though parts of the pro-democracy path here are unavoidably unclear right now, folks are charting first steps locally and nationally. Donating to investigative journalism and organizations bringing lawsuits can help challenge the Trump regime. Engaging with social media, podcasts and unconventional platforms can undercut his advantage among low-information Americans – as can engaging with such persons in person. Compromising and allying with principled conservatives seems essential when America’s fundamental fault line is no longer liberal/conservative but pro/anti-democracy.
10. The Democratic Party may get its act together. We can hope. And we can push it to try fresh approaches. Here’s one, not even drawn from abroad: Hold a televised “Outrage of the Day” session to attack a different Trump travesty each day. Model it on then-Governor Andrew Cuomo’s sensible Covid briefings, which served as powerful counterpoints to Trump’s regular rants. In view of the public’s attention span, they should be short and punchy: 10-15 minutes each, showcasing a rotating cast of younger Party leaders and media figures of all ages, including Jon Stewart.
Trump is bashing our democracy with a wrecking ball. I’ll accordingly sum up with lines from a Bruce Springsteen song by that very name: Hold tight to your anger. And don’t fall to your fears.
H/t: BB.
Thanks.
Excellent perspective, Stephen. Thank you for sharing it.
There are already early signs of mounting public opposition to Trump-Musk-Project 2025’s goal of turning the U.S. into a Hungarian-like state.
Some Trump supporters are starting to feel betrayed. Farmers in Kansas and Georgia are upset over canceled government contracts for wheat and peanuts due to the shuttering of USAID. Arab Americans for Trump have changed their name to Arab Americans for Peace. People who are participants in clinical trials are not happy about being disenrolled. Small business owners who rely on imported metals are afraid they will lose their livelihoods.
People who did not support Trump are starting to show their determination to defend our democracy. And these sentiments will only get stronger in the months ahead. I feel it is popular outrage that will be the ultimate guardrails against the Hungarianization of the U.S.
Thank you, Steve. This is just the positive and well grounded perspective I need to hear.
Your post brings hope. Thank you.