As an update to my last post about next Tuesday’s crucial Senate elections in Georgia, some new data point in positive Democratic directions for those January 5 runoffs.
The latest fivethirtyeight.com polling averages show modest upticks and leads for both Democrats. Raphael Warnock is up nearly two points over Kelly Loeffler. Jon Ossoff has erased a slight deficit to now edge David Perdue by one point.
Of particular note: A recent poll contributing to those averages is a Dec. 23-27 survey by the Republican-leaning, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group. It shows slight margins favoring both Democrats – a reversal from its Dec. 14-16 poll, especially for Warnock. While that firm is notorious for being non-transparent about its methodology, it correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 victory (and incorrectly predicted it this year).
Early voting is also skewing the Democrats’ way, as summarized by this Politico piece today:
Democrats are buoyed by the strong early vote numbers, which show Black voters making up a larger percentage of the electorate than in November and higher early turnout in Democratic congressional districts in the state…
Meanwhile, early-vote turnout has lagged in Republican-held congressional districts, likely leaving GOP Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue with a larger deficit heading into Election Day than they had to make up on Nov. 3…
In a less data-oriented vein, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s de facto veto of the proposed $2,000 stimulus checks, which are favored by both Trump and the Democrats, does Loeffler and Perdue no favors. And it doesn’t exactly build Republican unity when Donald Trump calls on Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, a fellow Republican, to resign.
One the other hand…the weather report for January 5 is good. That’s good news for Republicans counting on their supporters to mount a heavy turnout Tuesday. Indeed, at least partly due to Trump’s efforts to discredit early voting, Republicans favor voting on the day of an election more than Democrats do.
In addition, Trump will visit Georgia on Monday. That will surely fire up Loeffler and Perdue support – though, Trump being Trump, he may make his speech more about himself than them. He also contends with counterbalancing appearances by Joe Biden that same day and Kamala Harris the day before.
Especially given the Democrats’ miniscule polling average margins, nothing here to get our hopes exceedingly up about. But some promising things to bear in mind.
Surprised you still have ANY faith in polls
LOL. Good point. We have to take them with a pillar of salt. But it’s not just the polls per se. It’s how they’re tentatively trending, including that a pro-Republican poll has turned around, as well as other developments. As I said, we can’t get too hopeful. But we can’t despair either.
Hi, thanks for this. I’m interested in your take on Josh Hawley’s decision to object.
Don’t get me started. But as long as you did…he might as well have billed it as the kick-off for his 2024 presidential campaign, because why he’s doing it. It’s borderline seditious and absolutely irresponsible. And as a Yale law grad who served as his state’s attorney general, he most definitely knows better.
I hope though I won’t yet predict that the move actually proves counterproductive to Hawley. One thing the Democrats need to start doing is to (correctly) label the Republicans as the radical, anti-democracy party in this country. Hawley’s move makes him a poster child for that effort.
He’s an interesting political figure in that he’s actually favored a few poverty alleviation policies that Democrats might disagree with. But he’s firmly cast himself as a leader of the radicals with this move. And he should be tarred as such.