Georgia Pitch

Unfortunate Inattention

Despite the stakes, most news outlets and Americans are paying relatively little heed to the most important non-presidential U.S. elections in our lifetimes: the two Georgia Senate runoff races, which will be decided on January 5.

Even the Onion, with its finger on the nation’s pulse (or somewhere) regarding high-interest issues, relegates Georgia politics to a December 8 podcast on the deployment of hogs to root out voter fraud.

But these races are vital. Victories will give the Democrats control of the Senate. That is, if Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff both win, it yields a 50-50 Senate split, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote once she’s inaugurated on January 20. From climate change legislation to anti-corruption investigations to presidential nominations, countless crucial matters hang in the balance.

I’m not blaming folks for tuning out the Georgia contests. It’s the holiday season, for better or worse this year. And what with Covid surging, its financial fallout crushing millions, Trump contemplating a coup and his generally wreaking havoc as he heads out the door, it’s understandable that Americans are either focusing on such developments or burned out on following the news.

We Can’t Win?

Many progressives and Democrats downplay Georgia because they’re convinced that Republican candidates Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue will take one or both Senate seats.

There’s decent reason to think that way. On November 3, more Georgians voted for Republican than Democratic senatorial candidates in both races – though no one got a majority, which is why Georgia electoral law mandates these runoffs to begin with.

In addition, while the polling averages indicate very tight contests– a half point lead for Warnock, a half point deficit for Ossoff  – we can’t forget the polling fiasco otherwise known as Election Day, which saw Republicans across the country faring much better than most surveys had predicted.

We Can Win

I’m not predicting that both Warnoff and Ossoff will win. But we’ve seen far more surprising election outcomes. (Just ask Hillary Clinton.) Writing off the two Democrats is wrong.

Here’s why:

Georgia polling might not be so far off after all. Pre-Election Day surveys only slightly overestimated the Democrats’ November 3 performance in Georgia. A Vox analysis indicates that “pollsters in Georgia did a pretty good job with the presidential and Senate races…That suggests that Georgia polling is more reliable than the polls in many other states.”

Republicans might be turned off. A December 6-9 national Fox poll of registered voters asked, “Would you say this presidential election has made you more or less likely to vote in the next presidential election?” It found far more Republicans (16 percent) and Trump voters (19 percent) reporting they are less likely to vote in 2024 than Democrats (6 percent) or Biden voters (5 percent). This could have implications for the January 5 election.

Now, it’s a stretch to conclude that survey results regarding hypothetical 2024 voter participation are necessarily harbingers of the upcoming Georgia runoffs. But those results still stand out: Unlike this year, the same post-Election Day question in 2000 and 2016 indicated little or no partisan split in terms of voters’ anticipated conduct.

Republican infighting. The possibility of Trump supporters sitting out these Senate races becomes even more intriguing in view of Trump attacking leading Georgia political figures and calling the November 3 election fixed, Trump allies urging Georgians not to vote, deep divisions within the Republican Party over the legitimacy of the presidential results and potential Trump actions, whether Georgia-specific or national in scale, that could also undercut support for the two Republican candidates.

Trump is Trump. Trump’s conduct usually flows from just two traits: narcissistic self-interest or extraordinary irrationality. Neither guarantees that he won’t do something to further sabotage the Georgia GOP, especially since he’s leaving office and won’t have to deal with a potentially Democrat-controlled Senate.

And who knows? Maybe Trump’s reptilian brain somehow calculates that sticking it to Senate Republicans aids his post-presidential prospects or is worthwhile in terms of pure vindictiveness.

How to Help

We’re not helpless in trying to tip the outcome, especially since both contests could be close. Again, I know people have other things on their minds, including other things they want to do or contribute to. But for anyone interested in pitching in…

This useful article provides information and links to sites of the Democratic candidates and allied organizations, including those working on minority turn-out. (For various reasons, there’s been particular attention to Asian-American voters’ potential significance for the runoffs.) This piece and this one also detail that grassroots work.

One specific way to help is to support the get-out-the-vote and related efforts of Stacey Abrams’ Fair Fight organization, either by donating or volunteering, including long-distance. Abrams, who arguably lost her 2018 Georgia gubernatorial bid due to voter suppression, may well have been pivotal in Biden winning the state this year.

Though the election is coming up soon, it’s not too late to help. What have we got to lose? Except the Senate.