Are you a Harris supporter stressed about the election? Me too.
Let’s not panic, though. Kamala’s (probably) got this. I’ve got five reasons why.
But first, you can start de-stressing by watching the Saturday Night Live clip above, especially commencing at the 5:45 mark.
Now, on to those reasons:
1. The Gender Gaps
American women (along with some men) will save the day in two ways: Far more women than men vote; far more women than men will vote for Harris. In fact, according to a Brookings Institution review, if those margins stay the same in 2024 as they were in 2020, “Harris could win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.”
In fact, the margins could prove even larger this year due to greater motivation and thus turnout by women: Many wise pro-Harris women are standing up for their rights; many macho pro-Trump men are simply standing up for supposedly standing tall. Pro-Harris fires could be fueled by the Supreme Court’s anti-abortion Dobbs decision, pro-abortion ballot measures (including in swing states Arizona and Nevada), Trump’s ever-more-misogynistic rhetoric and (though she’s downplayed this) Harris’s trailblazing status.
Even more to the point: Women far outnumber men in early voting, by a 10 percent margin, unnerving even leading Trump supporters. And one key group whose votes Trump seeks, young men, simply tend to not show up for elections.
2. The Passion Gap
A recent Gallup poll found that more Democrats (77 percent) are enthusiastic about voting than Republicans (67 percent) are. Another survey detected a similar 10 percent edge for Harris versus Trump supporters regarding feeling angry if their candidate loses. Enthusiasm and potential anger don’t necessarily turn into votes, but that underlying passion might still help.
3. The Puerto Rican Gap
Don’t underestimate the anti-Trump impact of the idiotic comedian who slammed Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage” (while making a slew of other racist remarks) at Trump’s recent New York rally. This could well infuriate many Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania (which has almost 300,000) and other swing states. It certainly spurred superstar recording artist Bad Bunny to back Harris, making him part of the wave of Puerto Rican stars who reached out to over 340 million Instagram followers to show similar support after the rally.
4. The Momentum Gap
After a rough patch during which Trump seemed to be inching up, Kamala is regaining momentum in myriad ways. The final New York Times poll shows Harris up in four swing states, virtually tied in two and behind in one. A respected Iowa pollster’s survey showing Harris ahead there could combine with other recent poll results to be a harbinger for demographically similar swing states, even if Kamala (likely) loses Iowa itself. Survey results, including from Pennsylvania, indicate that she’s shrinking or even reversing Trump’s edge on the economy. And as I’ve already indicated, the fact that women are turning out much more than men in the early voting, with arguably much greater motivation to do so, could prove pivotal.
Now, what about all of those polls showing Trump tightening the race? For one thing, as I’ve noted, some recent surveys hold good news for Harris. But in addition, polling today involves so many subjective judgments by the even the best pollsters that the science is suspect. While this could work out to Trump’s benefit as much as Harris’s, it’s a reason to take surveys – and even averages across surveys – with a grain of salt.
In a development that’s gotten little press attention, Harris may benefit from an allied political action committee pouring up to $700 million into ads, social media posts and other messaging down the stretch, employing an unprecedented (though admittedly unproven), rigorous process for testing individual messages’ efficacy.
Finally, that SNL clip with which I opened this post shows it can’t hurt to close out the last Saturday of the campaign with a surprise star turn on the most popular entertainment show with folks aged 18-49.
5. The Get-Out-the-Vote Gap
Last but certainly not least, Harris has a more proven and organized get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation than Trump does, a phenomenon I witnessed during my recent canvassing in Pennsylvania. While Elon Musk and others are mounting massive pro-Trump GOTV efforts using paid canvassers, they may well be fraud-plagued and less effective. This approach certainly failed when Ron DeSantis relied on it (and on the same strategist Musk is now using) in his ill-fated campaign. Harris volunteers are more likely to actually do their bit, in contrast with Trump contractors prone to scamming the compensation system.
Speaking of GOTV: I’m told that Kamala’s campaign knocked on 2.7 million doors last weekend alone. Even at this late date, you can go to the Harris campaign’s volunteer site, including to sign up to call voters in swing states. Having just done this, I’ll say that it’s far easier to do than it looks at first on the site. And bear in mind that even one persuaded or mobilized pro-Harris voter per two-hour shift can prove crucial when multiplied by volunteers’ millions of calls.
It’s not too late to act. As Coach Walz explains, “We’ll sleep when we’re dead.”
[Hat tips: BB, DW, AL.]
Malia says
Thanks Steve. I’m freaking out.
Laurie Sievenpiper says
Thanks, Steve. From your lips to God’s ears.
Katherine Ryan says
I feel surprisingly relaxed. As a 71 year old grandmother of two granddaughters, I feel the mother bear in me raising up to defend my babies. I am not alone. Older women are not standing aside watching young women bleed to death without it affecting us. Screw these monsters! I have champagne chilled.
TR Lansner says
Thanks, Steve; just back from Reading PA, where the H-W and allied local Dem ground games are saturating neighborhoods. Little sleep for the next days, as Coach Walz evoked the Morgan Wallen song! The latest Iowa polling from Anne Selzer seems to reflect the Gender and Passion Gaps you describe, and will be amplified if If GOTV efforts in other Swingy States are like PA. Excellent discussion with Selzer here: https://audioboom.com/posts/8600992
Stephen Golub says
Thanks, Tom. I’ll check it out.
Stephen Golub says
Thanks for the feedback, folks! For what it’s worth, whenever I feel stressed I’m finding that viewing the SNL clip to be a great, joyful sedative.
Marnix A. van Ammers says
Thank you for the positive vibes. I needed them.
Barbara Fairchild says
I love your optimism, Stephen. Tonight at least it will calm my nerves after the opinion piece today in the Toronto Star that ended with this sentence.
“And in the democratic landscape he has salted, Donald Trump will claim victory, regardless of the objective outcome.”
Stephen Golub says
Thanks, Barbara. There’s no doubt that Trump will again try to overthrow the government if he loses, whether by quasi-legal tactics or violent ones or both. But the first big task is to make sure he loses.
Beverly L Mire says
I’m prematurely sad. Thanks for your optimism.
Bev