A Promised Land

America as a Developing Country

How Trump Could Still Steal the Election, Part Two

And why he’s unlikely to succeed, though that's a weak basis for complacency.

A Mess, Not a Process

Last week, I discussed how Donald Trump could try to steal the presidential election through voter suppression, voter disqualification and court decisions, and how Republicans planted the seeds of such an effort long ago.

I’ll now address how, even though Joe Biden is president-elect, Team Trump could seek to reverse the result by taking the fight to state legislatures, Congress and the Supreme Court. The strategy would exploit archaic, arcane aspects of our electoral college system that are even more nonsensical than you might imagine.

I’ll also sketch why Trump will most likely fail, not least because it might not be in the interests of many Republicans or the Court to see this battle through to the bitter end.

But “most likely” leaves no basis for complacency. That’s especially the case since Trump, like other would-be and actual autocrats elsewhere, has shown us who he is.

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People Power

A Rising

Perhaps you recall how and where you learned of Trump’s triumph over Clinton four years ago and loss to Biden this past weekend. For me, the bad election night news in 2016 came from a flight attendant while I was en route to China. The good news this year arrived via a Saturday morning phone call from India, asking me to do a TV interview on Biden’s win. It jolted me awake far better than my morning coffee was doing.

However, the strongest memory that word of Biden trumping Trump triggered for me was Philippine People Power: the massive demonstrations, witnessed across the world, that toppled long-entrenched autocrat Ferdinand Marcos in 1986. But also the televised celebrations that immediately ensued.

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How Trump Could Steal the Election, Part One

He's already started to try.

Tyranny and Complacency

Historian Timothy Snyder’s 2019 book, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century, offers numerous insights on preventing and battling authoritarianism. But the dominant thread running through the volume is this: Don’t be complacent. Don’t despair. And be prepared.

That’s the point of this post. While Joe Biden could sweep to a landslide – a reassuring possibility to which I return below – Election Day could instead unleash a lengthy legal, political and media fight comprising state-by-state trench warfare.

Rather than despair over that possibility, we should prepare for it. The first step is to understand what looms.

I’ll accordingly summarize here how Donald Trump, his allies and appointees could steal the election.

In fact, they’ve already started to try.

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A Damaged Culture

That's what a famous journalist once labeled the Philippines. But what about America?

“…I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, okay?”

 – Donald Trump, 2016

Even if President Donald Trump shot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue, New York authorities could not punish him while he is in office…

– Trump attorneys, 2019

Study links Trump rallies to more than 700 Covid deaths

 – Stanford University economists, 2020

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An Introduction to A Promised Land

The seeds of this site were planted in 1987, when I went to work in the Philippines for an American foundation, making grants to groups focusing on human rights, legal aid, investigative journalism and land reform. I hoped to contribute in some small way to rebuilding that former American colony’s democracy following its 1986 “People Power” revolution. That revolt toppled a dictatorship and inspired pro-democracy movements across the globe, from South Korea to parts of the former Soviet Union.

My six years based in Manila launched a professional journey that took me to more than 40 other developing and transitional societies as a researcher and consultant on matters such as corruption, democracy, justice for the poor and the rule of law. I’ve been fortunate to work with some remarkable reformers in those nations. These people pursue the promise of their societies through good times and – as unfortunately is the case in the Philippines and many other places today – bad.

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