That Was the Week That Was
Quite a week, eh? It’s hard to believe that just last Sunday so much talk was about Trump’s taped talk with Georgia’s secretary of state, while many of us eagerly awaited that state’s Senate elections.
That all seems like ancient history today, as Democrats are circulating a draft resolution to impeach Donald Trump for “incitement of insurrection.” Insurrection is “an act or instance of revolting against civil authority or an established government.” Unless House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reverses course or something equally unexpected happens, the House of Representatives will impeach Trump this week.
It’s extremely unlikely that the Senate will act on the impeachment fast enough to conduct a trial before Trump’s term ends on January 20. Though things could conceivably shift – remember, we’re talking about Donald Trump and a potentially expanding mushroom cloud of misconduct – it’s equally unlikely that the requisite two-thirds majority of senators (or really, of senators present for the vote) can be mustered to convict him.
But, as I argue here, impeachment is worth pursuing anyway, for a few clusters of reasons.
Impeachment Is a Shot Across Trump’s Bow
It could deter further Trump trouble-making right now. By refusing to back off of his election fraud claims or to attend Biden’s inauguration, Trump shows no intention of changing his stripes. But at least impeachment, the threat of conviction and the possibility of being disqualified from holding any public office (including the presidency) – an optional punishment the Senate could impose if it convicts him – should give Trump pause about more disruptive misconduct for the moment.
It also deters post-presidential Trump misconduct. After impeachment, House Speaker Pelosi or (incoming) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer could put a temporary hold on the processes that trigger Trump’s Senate trial. The delay would dangle the trial like a sword over Trump’s head, perhaps temporarily incentivizing further restraint by him.
In fact, they should hold up the trial, regardless. Congress will have more immediate matters (Covid, the economy, perhaps additional Trump mayhem) to attend to anyway.
Constitutional experts differ on whether a Senate trial can take place after a president leaves office. But the fact that the question is open could convince Trump to play it safe and avoid roiling the waters.
It deters potential misconduct by future presidents. Let’s hope we never have anyone like Trump in the Oval Office again. But impeaching him now, even at this late date in his presidency, could help set some limits on abuses by future presidents.
Deterring Trump Is Crucial Because He’s So Dangerous
He could start a nuclear war. Stark enough for you? If you prefer Armageddon presented in a more authoritative and nuanced manner, consider former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry’s words:
The key word in Perry’s stunning statement is “unhinged.” We already know that Trump is a disturbed individual. We also know that there is no low to which this supremely narcissistic, immoral man won’t go. With the walls closing in on his ego, and with possible financial collapse and even imprisonment looming, his desperate mindset poses real danger to the rest of us.
To be clear, I don’t at all expect Trump to literally go nuclear. He almost certainly prefers other outlets for his anger, even in his deranged state. But we don’t want him retaining that power a moment longer than the most expeditious impeachment and trial would take to remove him.
He can initiate other disastrous hostilities. For instance, he’s not a big fan of Iran. An attack against it might not only result in the deaths of Iranians, U.S. soldiers and others. as bad as those outcomes would be. It could also destabilize the region, spark blowback or spur retaliation on our own soil, sooner or later.
He can use the presidency to further incite his cult. This is the possibility I consider most possible. True, he may be temporarily cowed, and Twitter and other social media outlets are curbing his outreach. But while in office he retains greater power to fuel extreme supporters’ rage, riots, terrorism and insurrection.
Trump’s Incitement Can’t Be Allowed to Stand
His pre-January 6 actions. Here’s an annotated list of times Trump fed the flames of violence, including the kind that engulfed the Capitol. His actions also included non-violent but impeachable acts, such as that infamous January 2 phone call with Georgia’s secretary of state, which the draft resolution references.
His speech spurring the mob to march on the Capitol. Trump’s incendiary remarks included: “We will never give up. We will never concede. It will never happen. You don’t concede when there’s theft involved. Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore.”
His actions after the Capitol was seized. A Newsweek review indicates that he delayed in calling out the D.C. National Guard, which is under his authority, despite an urgent request from D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser. The Department of Defense – perhaps at his direction, but certainly under his command responsibility – similarly dithered when Maryland Governor Larry Hogan sought its permission for him to dispatch his state’s Guard units to help evict the mob.
And Trump repeatedly failed to condemn the rioters even as they raided the Capitol. Rather, in a video he told them that “we love you, you’re very special.” Giving “aid or comfort” to insurrection is a criminal offense and certainly an impeachable one.
Leading constitutional scholars urge impeachment. An op-ed co-authored by a pre-eminent authority, Harvard Law School’s Laurence Tribe, calls for impeachment and asserts:
Trump spent months convincing his followers, without factual basis, that they were victims of a massive electoral fraud. He summoned them to D.C. for a “wild” protest as Congress met to certify the election results. He then whipped them into a frenzy and aimed the angry horde straight at the Capitol. When Trump’s mob breached the building, he inexcusably dawdled in deploying force to quell the riot. And when he finally released a video statement, it only made matters worse.
What About Arguments Against Impeachment?
Here are some, and why I disagree with them:
It’s too late in his term to impeach him. See the points made above.
Impeachment will inflame his followers. Breaking news: They’re already inflamed. And appeasing them could fuel rather than douse his more cultish supporters’ fires.
Impeachment will intensify the country’s divisions while President Biden is seeking to unite it. More breaking news: The country is already intensely divided. Whether Biden can bridge our gaps will hinge on how he handles many other matters and how Trump supporters act, rather than how the House handles impeachment.
Just run out the clock, hoping that Trump’s aides block his doing anything dangerously blockheaded. So these sycophants, almost all chosen for qualities other than competence, are strong enough to stop him from doing anything rash? Seriously?
Impeaching Trump will make it easier for a future Republican-controlled House to unfairly impeach a Democratic president. Bill Clinton might have some thoughts about Republicans having already crossed that line.
Impeachment will play into Trump’s and Republican leaders’ hands. I respect this argument the most. Impeachment conceivably could enable them to change the subject, to make it about the Democrats’ last-minute move against Trump instead of what motivated the move. However, Trump’s and some leading Republicans’ interests may increasingly diverge now that he’s leaving office under a cloud and some are running for president. Impeachment might even sow some discord among them.
In any event, we must hold him accountable and seek to clip his wings. The risks of inaction are too great, the stakes too high.
[Hat tip: Dave W.]
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Thanks Stephen. This is so important reading to put the impeachment case clearly and thoughtfully.
Impeachment would also mean that the taxpayers will not have to fund security for him. It will also take away his lifetime stipend. I don’t think that the taxpayers should be on the hook for funding another dime for him or his grifting family.
I couldn’t agree more about the Grifter-in-Chief and his grifting family. But I’m afraid that, while he’d lose his other post-presidency perks, he’ll keep his security even if convicted. From Mother Jones:
“Regardless of what Congress decides [at the Senate’s impeachment trial of Trump], one perk Trump will get to keep is his Secret Service detail—a 2013 amendment to the law guaranteed lifetime protection, even to presidents removed from office.”
More on this, and on the perks a president normally gets, here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/01/if-trump-is-impeached-and-convicted-hell-lose-his-post-presidency-perks/
Agreed! Trump’s inciting insurrection requires a response. There has to be accountability. Even if impeachment fails to convict, it is a necessary step to document Trump’s treasonous behavior.
Thanks to all for the comments.
Well thought out analysis of what’s going on…I enjoyed reading your blog.
Thanks!
You clarified and put in a nutshell what many are thinking during this tumultuous time. Thank you and welcome to our community.
Glad to be here. And thanks very much for your comment.
Steve, I agree with you overall and you do a good job dismissing some of the counterarguments. The one counterargument you don’t address is the most likely outcome — yet another impeachment without a conviction. I am not saying that this is the end of the world, but I do think that it begins to erode the prophylactic potential of impeachment generally. Multiple impeachments without conviction begins to look a lot like censure — hardly the powerful tool that impeachment has been regarded as — at least until the Trump administration.
Indeed, I should have acknowledged that strong argument. But I’d argue in response that impeachment serves many functions, conviction being only one of them (albeit under most circumstances the most important one). It’s a statement of accountability: Even if someone is not convicted of robbery or worse the first time around, we still want to see them prosecuted if they commit a crime again. And I’d argue that is especially the case since this time the crime is even worse.
It’s a blot on a president’s record, with Trump even more stained now by virtue of being impeached twice.
It’s important for the House to do what it can and must about a dangerous nut in the White House, even if the Senate won’t. And even in the absence of a conviction, it’s a much more powerful statement than censure.
Let’s also bear in mind that the House is impeaching Trump because Pence and the cabinet aren’t doing their 25th Amendment job of removing him from office.
I realize some of what I’ve said is rephrasing my previous points, but they bear repeating in view of the notion that an unsuccessful impeachment might not be worth trying.
Most relevant to our current circumstances, and to counter your good argument, I’d assert that this impeachment could have powerful prophylactic impact. Contrary to his lizard brain’s instincts, Trump will have to think again and again before doing or saying things that could trigger more violence across the country, for fear of conviction and of being disqualified from running again. What’s more, he can no longer argue that he doesn’t know the consequences of his words and deeds.
Now, we could yet be in for more and even worse violence in the days ahead. But if Trump fuels it, his chances of conviction increase.
While the sword of a Senate conviction hangs over his head, both right now and in the weeks or months until his impeachment trial takes place, he’d better tread very carefully, lest he give Republican senators (many of which want him out of the picture for their own selfish ends) an excuse to vote for conviction or not show up for his trial (which decreases the number needed for conviction). That’s another crucial regard in which this impeachment is different from the previous one. The impeachment and trial can have real consequences for his current conduct, and vice versa.
Finally, while I’d still bet against his being convicted, I wouldn’t bet a lot. More evidence may yet emerge and Trump may yet find himself unable to abstain from increasing his chances of conviction. Even though he’s totally self-interested and self-absorbed, we know that he still sometimes inadvertently acts against his own self-interest. For instance, if he’d handled the Covid crisis in even a minimally competent, humane manner, he’d likely have been re-elected.